Islamist rebels once holed up in a mountainous pocket of the Syrian countryside are now roaming the streets of central Aleppo, taking pictures under the ancient citadel and tearing down symbols of President Bashar al-Assad’s rule.
The a sudden offensive in which the rebels seized territory in northwest Syria appears to have dramatically shifted the balance of power in Aleppo, the country’s second-largest city, and marks the most serious challenge to Assad’s control in years.
On Saturday evening, images emerged of fighters advancing deep into Syrian government-held territory towards the city of Hama, including Kafr Nabl, a city once seen as symbolic for its opposition to Assad.
Within hours, video footage showed rebels in central Hama. Syria’s state news agency Sana quoted military sources as denying reports of rebel advances in Hama, adding that “our armed forces have a reinforced defense line”.
Sanaa said government forces were pushing back the rebel advance with the help of Russian jets, while opposition networks reported airstrikes in Idlib province.
Fighters from the militant Islamist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) seized much of Aleppo less than a day earlier in a sudden rout of Syrian army forces. A reporter from the opposition television channel Aleppo Today showed uniformed fighters in an empty central square.
Footage shows people toppling a statue of Bassel al-Assad, brother of the Syrian ruler, to the sound of celebratory gunfire. Turkey’s Anadolu news agency reported that Syrian forces had withdrawn from several key locations, including the civilian airport, closing it as the rebels advanced.
HTS-led forces also seized an important military base in the south, while taking control of Saraqib, a strategic location on the highway to the capital Damascus.
Turkey-backed Syrian rebels have launched their own operation against Kurdish fighters and Syrian government forces in an attempt to seize a military airport east of Aleppo as swathes of territory quickly fell under rebel control.
The large-scale offensive appears to have surprised forces loyal to Assad, as well as his longtime supporters in Moscow and Tehran.
In a late-night phone call with Emirati President Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed al-Nahyan Assad stressed that Syria “will continue to defend its stability and territorial integrity.” He added that Damascus was able to repel the offensive “with the help of its allies.”
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi is expected in Damascus on Sunday before leaving for Turkey, while Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov discussed the situation in Syria with his Turkish counterpart Hakan Fidan in a telephone conversation.
Iran’s Tasnim news agency reported that the Syrian army was continuing to battle rebels in Aleppo amid reports of Russian and Syrian airstrikes around the city.
Rebels appear to have entered Aleppo with ease, in stark contrast to the fierce street battles for control of every block that engulfed the ancient city center 12 years ago. “No one expected Aleppo to be taken, which means there were no real defense lines in the city. Once they got there, it looked like everything was open,” said Jerome Drevon of the International Crisis Group.
Drevon pointed to the rebels’ long-standing efforts to formalize and refine their forces, allowing them to defeat the far less organized Syrian government fighters. “I think the regime didn’t expect such a quick move, the operation only started a few days ago,” he said.
The Syrian army said the sheer number of fighters “and multiple battlefronts prompted our armed forces to carry out a redeployment operation aimed at strengthening defense lines to absorb the attack, preserve the lives of civilians and soldiers, and prepare for a counterattack.” “
Dmitry Peskov, a Kremlin spokesman, called the situation in Aleppo “an attack on Syrian sovereignty,” adding: “We support the Syrian authorities to restore order in the area.”
What started in 2011 as a popular uprising calling for the ouster of Assad, later transformed into a bloody civil war centered on the battle for control of Aleppo. Syrian regime forces took control of the city in 2016. with the help of Russian aviation and Iranian ground forces. As he fought for control of the country, Assad also released jihadist fighters from the country’s prisons, transforming the uprising against him.
The sudden rebel victory in Aleppo symbolized a dramatic shift in control of key urban centers in Syria and an unexpected challenge to its president, who was long believed to have crushed the uprising.
Assad’s fragmented control of the country seemed secure enough that his former regional enemies, notably Saudi Arabia, began to restore diplomatic relations with Damascus.
Turkish officials, who have also discussed normalizing relations with Assad despite backing rebel forces, have denied any involvement in the Aleppo offensive. “We will not take any action that could trigger a wave of migration,” Foreign Minister Fidan said amid reports from the United Nations that the fighting had internally displaced 14,000 people in days.
The rebels’ sudden success quickly raised questions about their ability to hold territory and what an extended fiefdom might look like under the HTS leader known as Abu Mohammad al-Jolani. Jolani was designated a terrorist by the US State Department in 2013. and keeps a $10 million bounty on his head, but has de facto ruled Idlib province for several years.
As the militants in Idlib have sought to demonstrate their ability to govern, they have also been accused of crushing dissent while relying heavily on dwindling international aid to meet civilian needs. As fighters stormed Aleppo, humanitarian organizations such as Actionaid’s Sudipta Kumar warned that many people were suffering in Idlib.
“Thousands of families now face a freezing winter with nowhere to live,” she said.
Sam Heller, an analyst at the Century Foundation, said the rebels’ ability to hold on to their territorial gains depends on whether Damascus and its allies are able to mount a counterattack.
“Certainly some areas in Aleppo countryside may be difficult for HTS and their allies to hold if they come under really debilitating airstrikes or artillery fire,” he said. Rebel rule in Aleppo itself, he added, could prove much more difficult for Assad and his allies to repel in the long term.
“It is unclear what kind of capabilities Damascus is now able to deploy and mobilize from elsewhere in Syria, also critically what capacity Russia currently has in Syria given its current involvement in Ukraine, which has diverted some of their forces on that front.”
Drevon doubted that Jolani and his allies would want to cede power to a conventional governing body. The fighters are more likely to focus on expanding the battlefield for now, he said, adding: “They have been waiting for this fight for a long time.”
