Feeding off anger, fuelled by Russia… Enter Călin Georgescu, Europe’s latest radical populist | Simon Tisdall
Ppolitics in Romania it can be a bloody business, especially on the right. The excesses of the Iron Guard, a seditious, virulently anti-Semitic, ultra-nationalist politico-religious militia of the 1930s, stood out even at a time when fascist parties were wreaking havoc in Germany, Italy and Spain. Considering what is happening in Europe today, the events of that period are instructive.
Iron Guard founder Corneliu Codreanu, a ruthless assassin who was himself assassinated in 1938, and his ally-turned-foe, pro-Nazi General Ion Antonescu, who was executed for war crimes in 1946, have been in the news again recently. This is because they are both hailed as national heroes by Calin Georgescu, shock winner from the first round of the presidential elections in Romania last weekend.
Not just a throwback, Georgescu is a man of our time – a radical, hard-right, pro-Russian populist-nationalist who wants to make Romania great again. His anti-globalist, anti-NATO, Eurosceptic platform, entitled Food, Water, Energy, emphasizes self-sufficiency and aims to return the country to its rural roots. He does not belong to a conventional political party. Instead, he uses TikTok to reach millions of followers.
A sustainable development specialist aptly described as a “toxic waste expert”, Georgescu claims to speak for “those who think they don’t matter and actually matter the most”, as he puts it. Inflation, debt, corruption and security are the big problems as the country heads into parliamentary elections this weekend, followed by a presidential runoff on December 8.
Georgescu’s margin of victory in the first round was slim: 22.9% to 19.17% for centrist candidate Elena Lasconi – and Romania’s constitutional court ordered a recountwhich casts doubt on the outcome and timing of the runoff. If and when it comes to fruition, the Liberal Party and voters on the left are expected to shift their support to Lasconi in a concerted effort to block Georgescu.
This unprecedented turmoil dramatizes another pan-European concern: Russian hybrid warfare, and in particular election interference and social media disinformation campaigns. Georgescu’s feat of coming from nowhere to win raised red flags of “preferential treatment” and under-the-radar operations. Ann an investigation has been launched among the calls for TikTok to be stopped.
Yet even if Georgescu is ultimately thwarted, the obvious appeal of his hard-right, sovereignist agenda could shift the next parliament to the right and profoundly affect Romania’s future direction.
NATO has particular reason to worry. Earlier this year, the alliance announced a $2.7 billion expansion at its Mihail Koglunicanu base in Constanta, on the Black Sea coast. When it is finished, it will be NATO’s largest military base in Europe. His presence underscores Romania’s vital role in maintaining supply routes to Ukraine, facilitating grain exports from Kiev and maintaining the front line in the West’s deepening confrontation with Vladimir Putin’s Russia.
And yet, if he will, Georgescu will cut aid to Ukraine and limits Romania’s cooperation with NATO, which he says makes the country a target. He is critical of the deployment of US anti-missile batteries in Deveselu, southern Romania, which he sees as unnecessarily provocative to Moscow.
All this sends shivers across Europe, which already feels under siege, internally by extremist political parties and externally by subversive Russia and its anti-democratic allies. Instability on the EU’s south-eastern front, exacerbated by economic discontent, is growing. Fear of what Russia might do next after Ukraine has fueled support for the Kremlin’s appeasers and conciliators.
Elections in Romania’s neighbor Moldova in November provided further chilling insights into these shared challenges. Maya Sandhu, the country’s pro-Western president, narrowly won re-election amid a cover-up Russia-inspired and funded campaign to oust her. Sandhu defeated The Moldovan version of Georgescu, the Kremlin-friendly outsider Alexander Stoianoglo. October’s EU integration referendum was also an illegal target for Moscow.
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Across the Black Sea, Georgia’s voters are embroiled in a political nightmare after the ruling Georgian Dream party stole parliamentary elections in October. The EU rejected the result, citing “significant irregularities”, bribery, impersonation and violence. Adding insult to injury, former Manchester City player, Mikhail Kavelashvililooks like he will be appointed president.
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The authoritarian drift of the Georgian Dream has been blamed for the failure of EU accession negotiations. The party is seen as increasingly influenced by Russia, which is again said to have worked behind the scenes in the election. Passionate opposition street protestscontinued last week, and the boycott of parliament failed to overturn the result.
Brussels expressed concern. US President Joe Biden said he was “deeply troubled of the country’s democratic backsliding” – but little has been done to help. Score it in Moscow too.
The story is not so different elsewhere in South-Eastern and Central Europe. In Serbia, Bosnia, Hungary and Slovakia, right-leaning political leaders are turning to Putin and challenging the EU values they claim to uphold. Even in France and Germany, the core of the European project, right-wing Russian rot has taken root. Where Angela Merkel, Marine Le Pen and Alice Weidel I’m straining now.
Nationalist-populist parties fueled by anger about the cost of living, migration and cultural tensions, and encouraged and funded by hostile Russia waging hybrid and cognitive warfare – these are the twin enemies trespassingdividing and weakening European democracies. No one is immune. No one has yet figured out how to turn the tide.
And now a third negative force is at work. The elections in Romania are the first national elections to be held in a Western democracy since Donald Trump triumphed in America. Is there a Trump effect? His cynical populism, self-first economics, pro-Russian stance and disregard for democratic norms and values illustrate – and falsely confirm – all that is going wrong everywhere Europe today. Remembering the 1930s, some say Codreanu’s Iron Guard-style fascism is making a comeback. Maybe, maybe not. Whatever you call it, it’s scary.
Simon Tisdall is the Observer’s foreign affairs commentator
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