OOn January 30, 2015 Bayern Munich lost in the Bundesliga for the first time this season, losing 4-1 to Wolfsburg. Pep Guardiola he was worried. They had dropped six points from their opening 17 league games and the title was almost certainly already theirs, but Wolfsburg, inspired by Kevin De Bruyne, pulled them back on the counter.
The space that Guardiola’s teams leave behind the high defensive line has always been a vulnerability, it couldn’t help but be a vulnerability, but something had gone wrong with the press, allowing Wolfsburg the freedom. And if Wolfsburg could use him, Europe’s elite certainly could.
As options and ideas swirled around in his head, Guardiola decided he had to go back to first principles. He wrote his “bible,” as he began to call it, on the whiteboard in his office: two against four in attack; extra man in midfield; extra man on defense. They are explicitly Cruyff’s values, with the second and third commandments echoing the line Guardiola wrote when explaining the Dutchman’s philosophy in his 2001 memoir about the need to “fill the center of the pitch to play with numerical superiority”.
Football and Guardiola have moved on since then, but as he faces perhaps his biggest crisis as a manager, the tension disappears into the wounds he scratched his scalp as Feyenoord mounted their an amazing return to Manchester City on tuesday the temptation should be to go back to basics.
If the ‘bible’ remains as it was a decade ago, it means that against Liverpool’s 4-3-3 on Sunday, Guardiola will play a 4-4-2 (it must be said he didn’t follow his own advice against Barcelona in the semi-final of the Champions League in 2015, motivating that Dani Alves is such an attacking full-back and Lionel Messi so own kind that the usual rules do not apply; the back three he bet on were run over, eventually leading to a 3-0 defeat).
Is 4-4-2 a viable option? Perhaps if Julián Alvarez hadn’t been sold, he could have been paired with Erling Haaland, but perhaps a 4‑2‑3‑1 would be more likely – Guardiola’s assistant, Juanma Lillo, was one of the pioneers of the system at Cultural Leonesa three decades ago – with Phil Foden centrally located near Haaland. But Foden is more of an attacking midfielder than a second striker, and if he tries to get Virgil van Dijk and any of Ibrahima Konate’s replacements to defend, it would mean that the wide players have to operate very narrowly, for to create an overload in the midfield.
Guardiola’s bible would require a tight back four to tackle Liverpool’s back three, but with Rodri and Mateo Kovacic injured and Ilkay Gundogan so broken he could play for Erik ten Hag’s Manchester United at all not clear if they have the staff to do this. Perhaps Bernardo Silva and Mateus Nunes could be used flanking Gundogan and, if fit, De Bruyne. Perhaps Rico Luiz, who has youthful energy if not much brawn, could return, or Foden could play on the left with Jack Grealish used by Haaland. But none of those options bristled with City’s authority even a month ago.
In fact, shape doesn’t seem like a problem. Over the past few weeks there has been an uncanny feeling that a club is falling apart. Even before they started losing, City were struggling against Newcastle, Wolves, Fulham and Southampton. Injuries haven’t helped, some players are looking old, and in light of some of those absences, questions can be asked about recruiting, but what was most shocking was the lack of mainstream application. Is there a general sense of unease as the Premier League allegations hearing continues? Did the team tire of Guardiola’s intensity? Has the hunger subsided after so many successes? Something fundamental seems broken.
De Bruyne spent most of the final minutes against Feyenoord pointing and shouting; nobody was making runs to be able to move the ball – and for a system based on making the game almost constant rondo this is a major problem. But neither was anyone making defensive runs.
The third goalscored in the last minute by a City goal, it was a five-on-three breakthrough. Ederson’s strike from his own goal didn’t help, but also where was everyone else? Why did Nunes stop following Jordan Lotomba before the second one? Josko Guardiol and Ederson started making big mistakes. City have conceded 17 goals in their last six games.
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So what do City do on Sunday? Take it easy and try to keep a clean sheet, something only Nottingham Forest have managed against Liverpool this season? That would have been the orthodox decision, but injuries have left City without a supporting midfield and holes in the back line. Also, it’s just not Guardiola’s way: will his team really sit deep and look to go long to Haaland?
For Liverpool, meanwhile, this is a great opportunity. They already held eight point lead at the beginning of the weekend. A draw is a good result for them, but – and in this respect Arsenal’s draw against City last March, when a win would have opened up a four-point gap, is perhaps a useful precedent – they also have the opportunity to deliver a crushing blow to City. An 11-point lead wouldn’t be decisive with 25 games remaining, but it would offer considerable margin for error.
Who can City field as a left-back who can even begin to challenge the in-form Mohamed Salah? Given Lewis’ inexperience and Guardiola’s muddled mind, Guardiola would probably want to drop Nathan Ake there, but he has just returned from injury and may be needed in the center anyway. If Kyle Walker returns at right-back, Luis Diaz could do serious damage if, as appears to be the case, Walker’s pace leaves him.
But at the heart of every tactical question is the nagging feeling that none of it really matters. This is about City and Guardiola and their particularly intense psychodrama; Liverpool are leading the league but their role feels strangely secondary. Guardiola is a great coach and his squad is loaded with quality; they can still get away with it. But in the last few days there have been the first serious thoughts that this may be the end.
